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Interview question

Explain the Admiralty source grading scale. How would you grade a well-regarded vendor's report making a claim that no other source has corroborated?

A question with a specific correct shape: the scale grades source and information separately, and this scenario is exactly the case where the two diverge.

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Expert answer

The Admiralty scale, sometimes called the NATO system, grades every piece of reporting twice. Source reliability runs A to F: A completely reliable, B usually reliable, C fairly reliable, D not usually reliable, E unreliable, F reliability cannot be judged. Information credibility runs 1 to 6: 1 confirmed by other sources, 2 probably true, 3 possibly true, 4 doubtful, 5 improbable, 6 truth cannot be judged. A rating looks like B2.

The point of the pairing is that reliability is about the source — its track record, methodology, access and incentives — while credibility is about this particular claim, judged mainly on independent corroboration and internal consistency.

For the scenario described, I would grade it around A6 or B6. The source is highly reliable, and the credibility of this specific claim genuinely cannot be judged because nothing corroborates it yet. Not 1, and not 2 either — "probably true" would be importing the source's reputation into the credibility axis, which is exactly the failure the two-axis system is designed to prevent.

That combination is common and uncomfortable, and the notation earns its keep precisely because it forces you to write down that you are trusting rather than corroborating. It is not a reason to discard the report. It is a reason to be explicit that a subsequent assessment rests on a single uncorroborated source, and therefore cannot be held at high confidence however good that source is.

The other thing I would check before believing I had corroboration is circular reporting. If two more outlets pick this up next week and both cite the original, I still have one source, not three. Genuine independence also means independent collection — two vendors drawing on the same telemetry partner are not independent even if they never cite each other.

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